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Dear Vanguard,
Also, how best to financially plan at Vanguard for living beyond 122 years of age with extreme longevity genetic drugs emerging, FDA approved?
Thanks,
Scott Gordon K MacLeod
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Vanguard mutual funds - index investing - and etf funds with cryptocurrencies? AND Gemini AI about Vanguard Mutual Funds
Over a ten year averaging period, how have stocks, bonds, real estate and money markets performed since the 1920s per Vanguard Mutual Funds' analysis and re stock index investing? And have economists measured any divergence from this due to information technologies and artificial intelligences since say 1993 and the advent of the world wide web with graphical user interfaces?
Historical asset class performance and the impact of information technology/AI
1. Long-term asset class returns (1920s to present, 10-year averaging)
Vanguard's analyses and various sources offer insights into the long-term performance of stocks, bonds, real estate, and money markets.
- Stocks: Have generally been the top performers, delivering average annualized returns around 10% since 1928, based on the S&P 500.
- Small-cap stocks: Have historically shown even higher returns than the broader stock market, averaging +11.74% since 1928.
- Bonds: Have provided more modest returns compared to stocks, averaging around 4.5% - 5.4% annually.
- Real Estate: Has yielded returns around 4.23% - 4.3% annually since 1928, according to some analyses. However, data for real estate can be more challenging to obtain and analyze due to factors like hidden ownership costs.
- Money Markets (Cash): Have offered the lowest returns, around 3.3% annually.
Note: These are long-term averages. Actual returns over any 10-year period can deviate significantly from these figures, as highlighted by Vanguard's research. For instance, rolling 10-year stock returns have historically varied between approximately -5% and 20%.
2. Impact of Information Technologies (IT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) since 1993
Economists and researchers have explored the impact of the World Wide Web, information technologies, and artificial intelligence on various aspects of the economy and financial markets since the mid-1990s.
While it's difficult to definitively pinpoint a precise divergence solely attributed to these factors, some key observations have emerged:
- Increased market volatility and speed: Algorithmic trading and AI may contribute to higher market speed and volatility, especially during periods of stress.
- Faster reflection of new information: AI can drive prices to reflect new information more rapidly.
- Improved risk management and market monitoring: AI can enhance risk management and market monitoring capabilities for both participants and regulators.
- Potential for shifts in financial market structure: AI could potentially lead to significant changes in market structure due to advanced trading strategies and AI model development.
- Impact on specific sectors and companies: Research suggests that AI investment announcements can have varying impacts on company stock returns, depending on factors like credit rating, industry, and the type of AI investment.
- Evolution of trading and investment strategies: AI is influencing investment strategies through predictive analytics, factor investing, and algorithmic trading.
- Challenges for real estate: The real estate sector has faced challenges due to economic shifts like work-from-home trends, potentially impacting its performance.
However, it's important to remember that:
- The impact of AI is still emerging, and its full effects on asset class returns and market dynamics are subject to ongoing observation and research.
- Existing trends in machine learning and data analysis predate the widespread adoption of AI, making it challenging to isolate the specific impact of AI itself.
In conclusion, while information technologies and AI have undoubtedly brought about significant changes in financial markets and the broader economy, isolating a clear, measurable divergence in long-term asset class returns solely attributable to these technologies since 1993 remains a complex and evolving area of economic and financial research
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Over a ten year averaging period, how have stocks, bonds, real estate and money markets performed since the 1920s per Vanguard Mutual Funds' analysis and re stock index investing?
Over a 10-year averaging period since the 1920s, according to Vanguard and other sources
- Stocks (U.S. equities) have shown strong long-term performance, with average annualized returns around 10%. Vanguard's own analysis indicates a historical average of 10.5% for U.S. equities. However, there's been considerable fluctuation in those returns over rolling 10-year periods, ranging from about -5% to 20%.
- Bonds (U.S. bonds) have generally delivered more moderate returns compared to stocks. Vanguard's research mentions a historical average of 5.4% for U.S. bonds. Similar to stocks, 10-year bond returns have also varied, typically between 0% and 14%. For example, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX) had a 10-year return of 1.65% as of July 31, 2025.
- Real estate (represented by REITs) has historically provided a return of 4.3% since 1928, according to one source. The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VGSIX) had a 10-year average return of 5.79% as of July 29, 2025.
- Money markets/cash have consistently provided the lowest returns among the asset classes discussed. One source indicates a 3.3% return since 1928. Vanguard notes that historical price data is less relevant for money markets as they aim to maintain a stable price of $1 per share, but yield information can be helpful for evaluation. The Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) had a 7-day SEC yield of 4.22% as of July 28, 2025.
Vanguard on asset allocation and index investing
- Vanguard emphasizes the importance of a diversified portfolio and has long advocated for index investing, which involves investing in funds that track market indices rather than trying to beat the market.
- They highlight the consistency of a globally diversified 60% stock/40% bond portfolio, noting that its 10-year trailing annualized return was 6.9% over the past decade.
- Vanguard's research indicates that their valuations-aware expected return forecasts for various asset classes, which consider prevailing market conditions, have been more closely aligned with actual returns compared to relying solely on long-term historical averages. They have provided recent 10-year annualized return forecasts, including 3.3% to 5.3% for U.S. equities and 4.0% to 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds
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What is Vanguard mutual funds stance on index investing in 2025?
Vanguard's stance on index investing in 2025 continues to be a cornerstone of their investment philosophy, emphasizing its role in achieving long-term investment success through diversification and low costs.
Here's a breakdown of Vanguard's approach to index investing in 2025:
- Focus on Low-Cost Index Funds: Vanguard remains dedicated to offering a range of low-cost index funds and ETFs designed to track various market benchmarks, according to Investopedia. This aligns with their foundational belief, established by their founder John Bogle, that minimizing fees and trading costs allows more of an investor's money to remain invested and potentially generate returns.
- Diversification through Indexing: Vanguard's investment strategy for funds like the Target Retirement 2025 Fund utilizes index funds to achieve broad diversification across asset classes and holdings. This approach seeks to provide capital growth and current income consistent with the fund's target allocation.
- Empowering Investors with "Investor Choice": In a move to empower index fund investors, Vanguard's "Investor Choice" program, launched in March 2025, allows investors in participating equity index funds to choose from a range of voting policies to determine how their share of the fund votes on shareholder matters at the companies held within the fund. This expands upon Vanguard's mission to advocate for investors and give them a more direct voice in the proxy voting process.
- Balancing Indexing with Select Active Strategies: While Vanguard strongly advocates for index investing, they also acknowledge that active and index funds can both play a role in a balanced and diversified portfolio. For instance, they point to potential opportunities for active management in sectors like fixed income, where skilled active managers may potentially generate excess returns, particularly in environments like the current higher interest rate environment.
- Emphasis on Long-Term Investing: Vanguard consistently emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and supporting the case for portfolio diversification, irrespective of short-term market fluctuations or specific trends.
In summary: Vanguard continues to strongly advocate for index investing in 2025, emphasizing its low-cost, diversified approach to long-term wealth building. However, they also recognize the value of combining index funds with carefully selected active strategies, particularly in specific market segments, while continuing to prioritize investor empowerment and a long-term investment outlook
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What are Vanguard mutual funds etf funds made up of?
Vanguard mutual funds and ETFs are investment vehicles designed to track the performance of a specific market index or sector. They are made up of a basket of securities such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, and offer investors a convenient and cost-effective way to diversify their portfolios by gaining exposure to a wide range of assets with a single investment.
Vanguard mutual funds
Vanguard mutual funds offer a wide selection of passively managed index funds and actively managed funds.
- Index funds: Designed to track a specific market index, like the S&P 500, offering diversification, tax efficiency, and low costs.
- Actively managed funds: Managed by a team of professionals who select individual investments aiming to outperform the market.
Vanguard also offers various specialized mutual funds, including:
- Money market funds: For short-term needs and low market risk.
- Bond funds: Focused on income and reduced volatility compared to stock funds.
- Balanced funds: A mix of stocks and bonds for diversified growth and income.
- Stock funds: Focus on long-term growth but with higher risk.
- International funds: Investing in companies outside the United States for additional diversification.
- Sector & Specialty funds: Focus on specific industries but carry more risk due to narrow focus.
Vanguard ETFs (exchange-traded funds)
Vanguard ETFs offer the diversification of mutual funds with real-time pricing and a low investment minimum, often as low as $1 for fractional shares. They are traded like stocks on exchanges.
Vanguard ETFs can be categorized into three main types:
- Core ETFs: These track broad market segments, covering U.S. and international stocks and bonds, like total market funds.
- ESG ETFs: Focused on investments aligned with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors.
- Short-term ETFs: Designed for short-term savings goals.
Diversification and underlying holdings
Vanguard emphasizes diversification within their funds. For example, a "total bond" fund invests in a mix of short, intermediate, and long-term bonds with varying credit quality and risk. Similarly, "total stock" funds combine small, mid-size, and large companies with varying degrees of value and growth orientations.
At the broader level, Vanguard's top holdings across its managed assets include major companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META), collectively representing a significant portion of Vanguard Group's stock portfolio
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Vanguard mutual funds etf funds for cryptocurrency - what cryptos do they have
Vanguard does not directly offer mutual funds or ETFs that directly hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum. The company has maintained a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies, citing concerns about their volatility and speculative nature.
However, due to their passive indexing approach, some Vanguard funds have indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies through companies like MicroStrategy, which holds significant amounts of Bitcoin. For example, Vanguard is the largest institutional shareholder in MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Important points to consider
- Vanguard's Stance: Vanguard's official position is that cryptocurrencies are speculative and not suitable for long-term investors.
- Indirect Exposure: The exposure that Vanguard clients have to cryptocurrencies is indirect, stemming from the company's holdings in firms that have invested in or are involved with digital assets. This is not the same as directly owning a Bitcoin ETF.
- Lack of Direct Offerings: Vanguard does not currently offer dedicated mutual funds or ETFs for investing directly in cryptocurrencies.
If you are looking for direct exposure to cryptocurrencies through ETFs, you will need to explore options offered by other investment firms that have embraced this asset class
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Society, Information Technology, and the Global University (2025, forthcoming)
Scottish Small Piping album #2 - Honey Piobaireachd (2022)
- https://twitter.com/ TheOpenBand (Berkeley)
Scottish Small Piping album #1 Honey in the Bag ~ Out of the Air tune (2020)
Order Book #4 To the Dance or the Pools? ~ Virtually! How different it is to soak at Harbin Hot Springs, than to realize it in virtual reality (2019)
Order Book #3 Winding Road Rainbow: Harbin, Wandering & the Poetry of Loving Bliss (2018)
Order Book #2 Haiku-ish and Other Loving Hippie Harbin Poetry (2017)
Order Actual-Virtual Ethnographic Book #1: Naked Harbin Ethnography (2016)
- Scott GK MacLeod
Founder, President, CEO & Professor
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